School inspection body Ofsted was recently branded ‘toxic’ and ‘not fit for purpose’ by an independent inquiry and has been earmarked for reform by the Labour Party. We speak to Dr Iftikhar Hussain about his research on the subject, which was recently cited by the House of Commons Education Select Committee.  

What can an economist’s perspective bring to our understanding of Ofsted? 

Education is a key driver of economic growth, equality and social mobility, so, many economists keep a close eye on the sector, including the accountability of schools. However, the causal links between accountability and performance are not well understood. For example, there is scant evidence about the validity of inspectors’ judgements of school quality. Without a sound understanding of such issues, it is difficult to assess whether the school inspection system is fair or reliable.  

I try to bring a novel perspective to this area. By making use of the wealth of official statistical data – for example, the National Pupil Database and parents’ school applications – we can begin to assess the validity of the Ofsted regime and its impact on schools, pupils, parents and teachers. 

How does Ofsted compare with other school inspection systems? 

There is no comparable inspection regime elsewhere in the world. Ofsted is a real outlier, and its unusually stringent inspection regime can have serious consequences. Its single-word assessments can make or break a school’s reputation and have a huge impact on local communities, and on parent and teacher behaviour.  

How does the inspection process affect schools? 

There are two opposing views about the potential impact of a poor Ofsted inspection outcome for a school. One is that a poor judgement stigmatises a school, leading to a cycle of decline. On the other hand is the belief that shining a light on a school’s failings can act as a catalyst for change and improvement.  

My research does show some short-term improvements in pupil achievement after a school has been judged to be failing. But there is a real lack of evidence about whether Ofsted judgements lead to genuine school improvement in the long term. I strongly believe that this evidence gap is hindering good policy decision-making. 

What about the impact on parents?  

When investigating how parents choose primary schools for their children, we found that around half of parents simply pick their nearest school, while the other half actively choose a school that is further away. Our research demonstrates that parental choices are strongly influenced by Ofsted ratings – over and above factors such as a school’s position in the publicly available school ‘league tables’. This is true for both better off families and more disadvantaged households.  

The study highlights that parents have a great appetite for information about school quality, and Ofsted’s simple-to-understand, transparent headline measures of performance are useful in this respect. However, questions remain around the wider use of these ratings, including whether schools should be subject to greater intervention following a poor rating, for example. 

What are some of your key recommendations for policymakers? 

In my evidence to the UK parliament’s Education Committee inquiry, I made the point that there are many ‘known unknowns’ when it comes to the school inspections system in England. There is little robust quantitative evidence on the long-term consequences of poor inspection outcomes for pupils, school leaders and other staff. Fundamental questions such as whether schools improve following a ‘requires improvement’ or ‘inadequate’ inspection outcome remain unanswered. One of my key recommendations is that the government and funding bodies should invest in research to better understand these long-term consequences.  

There is also a need to better understand which types of inspections lead to the most valid judgements. Over the years, Ofsted inspections have undergone various changes in focus, frequency and funding levels, but it’s still not clear what policy lessons have been learned from these reforms and changes. I plan to keep exploring these unanswered questions and to use my research to shape any future reforms. 

Find out more:  

House of Commons Education Committee, ‘Ofsted’s work with schools: First Report of Session 2023–24  (published January 2024) 

Iftikhar’s submission to the committee

Iftikhar Hussain, Housing Market and School Choice Response to School Quality Information Shocks, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol 138, 2023 

Ellen Greaves and Iftikhar Hussain,School Quality Ratings and School Choice: Evidence from a Nationwide System, 2023. 

Iftikhar Hussain, Vincenzo Scrutinio and Shqiponja Telhaj, The Impact of Public Sector Performance Disclosure on Employee Wages and Career Outcomes, 2022. 

This article is featured in our Research Review 2022-23